Advanced Stock Markets Are Now Totally Drug Addict

Amid debates on whether recent weeks’ sell off in advanced economies stock markets was a correction or start of a new collapse, picture of world’s top bourses Tuesday clearly indicated that these developed markets now turned totally addicted to stimulus money, just like a drug addict desperately needs heroin.

Banks and shares in peripheral countries led a European rally on Tuesday after media reports claiming that the European Central Bank (ECB) is considering buying corporate bonds to revive the region's economy.

The purchases, which the news reports said could be approved in December and start early next year, are seen as helping banks, especially in struggling southern European countries, free up more of their balance sheet for lending.

The Euro STOXX banking index rose 3.3%, with the biggest gains seen in Greek, Italian and French banks.

Tuesday, European investors were as happy as a drug addict who finally found his heroine. The ECB signaled that it would give the desperately needed easy stimulus money or heroine of the struggling European economy. Before this month dominant consideration was Germany’s manufacturing economy was strong but peripheral countries were weak. However, latest set of economic data indicated that Germany was also slowing down and Europe was on the brink of a new recession or even deflation. So the ultimate remedy is to apply to the lender of last resort or the ECB and make it print paper money out of thin air again!

Elsewhere, Japanese stocks fell Tuesday, with the market latching on to comments from the welfare minister on the country's public pension fund. Over the weekend, media reported that the $1.2 trillion GPIF would likely raise its allocation for domestic stocks to about 25%, a bit more than market expectations of around 20%.

Minister Yasuhisa Shizoaki, responsible for the GPIF, said on Tuesday that he did not know anything about media reports, disappointing investors who had hoped he might confirm such reports.

Let’s summarize situation in Europe and Japan: One drug addict finds hope for new shot of heroin on the other hand another one is disappointed that he will not get the amount of shot as much as he expected.

'Money for Injections' from www.tOrange.us 

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Finally, the US stocks rallied on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 on track for a fourth straight session of gains. Media says that American markets were boosted by strong corporate results. If you really believe that the US stock market is not moving according to the more than $3 trillion heroin injection or ‘golden shot’ since 2008 but economic realizations; that means you also need a drug. Here is your drug from Mike Maloney: A video clearly indicating that the US stocks move completely parallel to easy stimulus money: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T5JcmpN2mrA&feature=youtu.be&a

Due structural problems like inefficient and excessive source utilization, aging populations, centralization, bureaucratization, nuclear family breaking up, alienation, depression and etc. advanced or matured, old money-industry economies are no longer able to maintain their manufacturing industries in a productive way.

Advanced or developed economies are money based or capitalist economies which organize production with money. Real rulers of these economies are people who control the main production organizer or money or big capital. As the system reached its natural limits rulers corrupted money and invented fiat paper currencies which are not backed by any tangible assets like gold to keep the economies going and more importantly to maintain their ruling positions. 

You can take natural substances and make drugs from them and have joyful time with this and forget your real problems. Rulers of money economies took natural money or gold and corrupted it and produced fiat currencies, a kind of drug for economies. They covered real issues and gave unsustainable entertainment to people. However, now both rulers and public became addicted to this drug. Everybody knows what will be the end of a person who denies his/her real problems and try to live life with drugs!

American Labor Productivity More Than Halved Since 1990!

When you read the headline you might have thought “What the hell is this guy saying? Labor productivity is very strong in the US.” This way of thinking is right if you depend on conventional methods of economic data gathering and processing. However, if you change your perspective you will see a brand new and surprising world.

Today, under traditional methods labor productivity is measured by dividing a special Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to the total hours worked of all persons, in a year. So, here is the conventional formula:

Labor Productivity = Special GDP*/Labor Hours

*(Excludes the following: General government, the output of the employees of non-profit institutions and private households, and the rental value of owner-occupied real estate)

First of all, this special GDP, or annual production of a country, does not include state economy. State economy is the centre of bureaucratization and inefficient source usage in the advanced industrialized money economies. Currently, in each developed country, state controls nearly half of the economy.

By Stefan Kühn on de.wikipedia, via Wikimedia Commons

Additionally if you measure labor productivity with paper money you will not see the impact of inflation on it easily.

For example, when you measure the American labor productivity with the US dollar, as it is done today, you will notice that it is continuously increasing. Like it is clearly seen in the table below:

CLICK THE TABLE TO ENLARGE

The US Labor Productivity Measured by the US Dollar = 1971: 47.86 dollars, 1980: 55.18 dollars, 1990: 64.54 dollars, 2000: 81.17 dollars, 2014 (2Q): 105.97 dollars

According to this calculation if someone work for an hour in the US in 1971 he/she would earn 47.86 dollars. By the end of 2^nd Quarter of 2014, this figure jumps by 121.4% to 105.97 dollars. Since 1990, labor productivity rose by a significant 64.19%, in US dollar terms.

Now let’s see what happens if we radically change our perspective. How can the picture change, if we measure the US labor productivity with a real good for instance, gold? Here is a detailed table on this issue:

Period	Labor Prod in $	Gold Price per Oz in $	Gold Price per Gr in $	Labor Prod  in Gold
1960	34.60	35	1.1253	30.75
1971	47.86	35	1.1253	42.53
1980	55.18	593.75	19.0895	2.89
1990	64.54	376.3	12.0983	5.33
2000	81.17	275.05	8.843	9.18
2008	96.83	845	27.1673	3.56
2013	106.57	1202.3	38.6548	2.76
2014 2Q	105.97	1321.8	42.4968	2.49
Chg (1990-2014)	+64.19%			-53.28%

Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, tradingeconomics.com, goldprice.org

In this table, we see that US labor productivity in terms of gold first crashed during 70s, than modestly recovered in 80s and 90s, but dived again during 2000s and continued falling after 2008 Crisis, despite more than 3 trillion dollars money printing. There is no continuous rise! Contrary, labor productivity collapsed during 2000s. According to the latest data it is almost halved, compared to 1990!

In other words, in 1971, by working an hour, an American worker could earn 47.86 dollars and buy 42.53 grams of gold with this money. However, by the end of second quarter of 2014, despite earning 105.97 dollars he/she can only buy 2.49 grams of gold with it! Until 1971 there was a state monopoly on gold market and gold price was artificially fixed at 35 dollars. So crash of labor productivity in 1970s was stemming from normalization of gold prices. But even we exclude this fact we see that by the end of 1990 an American worker could buy 5.33 grams of gold with his/her one hour work. However this amount fell by 53.28% to 2.49 grams by the end of second quarter of 2014. In other words, the US labor productivity lost more than half of its real value since 1990.  

So what is the meaning of this for the world economy? If the FED is expecting to gear up the US economy with a slightly rising employment, trusting that American labor productivity is so strong and even a small amount of job creation would lead to enough GDP growth, this will not happen! Real US labor productivity is going nowhere, it is collapsing. The FED needs GDP growth to lower currently unsustainable rate of public debt to GDP and pay US state debt. Otherwise it needs to create inflation and decrease the real value of public debt. This option is only possible by opening a new money printing or QE package rather than ending the current QE or hiking interest rates, as generally expected today.

There is no doubt that labor productivity situation is same in the other developed regions like Europe, Japan or Russia. So why is the labor productivity collapsing in old, matured or advanced industrial money economies.

Because these economies reached natural limits of an industrialized money economy. Aging population, bureaucratization, crumbling nuclear family, alienation, depression, excessive inefficient source utilization, rising debts and etc. spoil and lower labor productivity. Decreasing labor productivity and structural deflation are important characteristics of today’s dying advanced industrial economies.

Matured or developed money based industrial economies seem to end up with a financial crisis bigger than 2008. This worldwide shake-up would not kill money based or capitalist way of production completely but it will open gates for a new production mode, which is not based on money but information.

  

Exclusive Interview with James Rickards, Pentagon's Financial Warfare Advisor

Abenomics Will Fail

BIS, IMF and G-20 Warned that the System is Going to Collapse

In the Next Financial Panic They might Close Stock Markets, Banks, Funds etc.

James G. Rickards is an American lawyer, economist, and investment banker. He is a regular commentator on finance, and is the author of The New York Times bestsellers Currency Wars (2011) and The Death of Money (2014).

Rickards worked on Wall Street for 35 years. As general counsel for the hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM), he was the principal negotiator in the 1998 bailout of LTCM by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

In 2001, Rickards began using his financial expertise to aid the US national security community and the US Department of Defense. He served as facilitator of the first ever financial war games conducted by the Pentagon. Currently, James Rickards is a portfolio manager at West Shore Group and he lives in Connecticut.

Rickards attended Forex World Istanbul and delivered a presentation on currency wars at the event on Friday. I found the opportunity to ask a couple of questions to Jim following his book signing event. I am sharing this short interview and Rickards’ exclusive comments here.

James Rickards and Erkan Öz at FX World Istanbul

-Hello Jim.

-Hello, Erkan.

-My first question is, what do you think about ‘Abenomics’ this historical money printing experiment taking place in Japan?

-Japan has been in depression since 1990 so it is a 25 years depression. Depressions cannot be solved with liquidity or monetary solutions. Depressions can be solved with structural solutions. You have structural problems so you need structural solutions. Through all this time Japan tried monetary solutions. They tried money printing, they tried lower interest rates, they tried stimulus but they could not make fundamental structural reforms for their economy. So that’s why they were not able to get out of the depression. Abenomics will fail. It is failing unless they make structural solutions. But since they have not I expect their depression to continue and spread throughout the world.

-Why they cannot make these structural changes?

-It is mostly cultural because structural means you have to allow banks to fail you have to allow businesses to fail you have to allow competition you need a greater role for women you have to lower taxes these are structural things they have nothing to do with liquidity or monetary policy. The problem is about how the diet (Japanese parliament), the prime minister’s office and finance minister’s office will organize the economy.

I recently met with Eisuke Sakakibara in Korea. He is called ‘Mr. Yen’. He is former deputy finance minister. He said one of the things you have to understand about Japan is that the population is actually declining so even if you have zero GDP growth the per capita GDP would increase… Japan is not a poor country it is a very rich country. The stores are up the restaurants are up on sale. They don’t feel the press but actually they do not have growth and I expect this to continue.  

-You said (in your earlier speech) that you don’t expect a rate hike in the US in 2015.

-True.

-What do you expect for Japanese guys for 2015? Will they continue stimulus?

-Yes. They are trying to solve a structural problem with a liquidity solution. It won’t work but they think it will work. My opinion does not matter. What matters is what’s Janet Yellen’s opinion, Kuroda’s opinion and Abe’s opinion. They think this will work and so they gonna keep trying. It wont work and they wont be able to raise rates. Because they won’t gonna normalize rates in a world where growth is not going back to trend.

-What about the role of BIS, in today’s picture and can it have a future role like you described for the IMF?

-I think in terms of a central bank of the world that is really the IMF. The BIS is very important for two reasons. Number one: They are the primary intermedia for manipulating the gold market. That is not a mystery… BIS is manipulating the gold market. They are the intermedia between the central banks and commercial banks and other central banks (of the world). They have been doing that… That’s why they were created in 1930s and they have been doing it ever since. (Number two): … It is also a very important meeting place for the central bankers. One of my partners was David Mullins Jr. He was the vice chairmen of the Federal Reserve in early 90s under Alan Greenspan. He said that Greenspan did not like the (program) and stood off and David would go to the BIS place. You know it is a clubhouse. Only central bankers are allowed ... So it is a great place to change information.

Very interestingly BIS about a month ago issued a warning of systemic risk. They said that the system is getting dangerously close to collapse. A few weeks later the IMF issued a similar one. And then last week G-20 finance ministers meeting at Australia issued a warning. What was the last time you saw the three most powerful multilateral financial bodies BIS, IMF and G-20 issued warnings. I have never seen it before. They are telling you it is going to collapse. They see what I say and they are warning you. People would ignore it but when it happens they would be able to say we have told you. I think I have never seen anything like this. I have been in international finance since 1974 and I have never seen a situation like this…

I think the BIS is very important but I don’t see it is the world’s central bank I really think that role has been left to the IMF.

-Last question Jim, you are telling us in your books that there would be a financial panic... Can you describe us what kind of events could happen during this financial panic? What are your expectations?

I think this financial panic would be different than the last one. The reason is that in all of the financial panics since 1971 the solution was to print money provide liquidity. But prior to 1971 historically the solution was to shut the doors. To close the stock exchange, close the banks, close funds so you can not get your money. That’s what Nixon did in 1971 he closed the gold door so you can’t get your gold. Since then 1987 stock market crash, 1994 Mexico crisis, 1998 Russia LTCM dot com, 2007 mortgage crisis, 2008 panic; in all these crises the solution was to print more money. My expectation is that next time money printing is not gonna work because they can’t print more they have already printed a lot. So they gonna have to go to the old solution. We are already seeing this. For example, the SEC passed a rule last month saying that money market funds can suspend redemptions. This is the law. Now if you talk to the US investors who have money market funds they think it is cash. They think they can call the broker today and money is in the bank tomorrow. They gonna find it is not cash. It has actually closed the door. That’s gonna be a shock. So the financial panic itself will be as always a shock.... But the remedy is not gonna be printing more money. They could print SDRs but that is a little experimental. But, maybe in this case, they have to start closing things down. Which in the distant past that was always what they did.

-Thank you very much Jim.

-Thank you, it was nice talking to you.

Why Gold Prices Fall Despite European Money Printing?

Last week, the European Central Bank (ECB) surprisingly lowered all its interest rates and announced that it will print money. Following the news the US dollar started to appreciate against euro and all other currencies and commodities including gold.

Gold it is an alternative for paper and fiat currencies. So, if the ECB will provide more euros and expand the paper money supply gold must have gained value. However, it significantly lost value falling from around 1300 dollars to 1250 dollars levels.

"Euro coins and banknotes" by Avij (talk · contribs) - Own work. Licensed under Public domain via Wikimedia Commons

Attributing this fall in gold prices to easing geopolitical concerns is nonsense. I do not think that markets ever really priced a war between the NATO and Russia. If it was the case gold would have skyrocketed to 10 thousand dollars if we consider possible destruction that could be created with such a war. If the war was never priced so a ceasefire in Ukraine has no real impact on gold prices.

The fall of gold prices against expectations for abundance of euros indicates and underlines a special feature of the yellow metal. The gold is not only an alternative for paper and fiat currencies; more importantly it is an alternative for the global reserve currency.

A reserve currency is the kind of money that is held in significant quantities by governments and institutions as part of their foreign exchange reserves for using in international transactions. With the reserve currency you can purchase imports and borrow in international markets more cheaply than people who do not use a reserve currency because you would not need to exchange the reserve currency to do so.

"Gold Bars" by Agnico-Eagle - Agnico-Eagle Mines Limited. Licensed under Creative Commons Zero, Public Domain Dedication via Wikimedia Commons

Today the world is generally using the US dollar as the global reserve currency. The other alternative reserve monies are euro and gold. Recently, sanctions against Iran showed the world that gold is a very effective reserve currency in emergency situations. When the sanctions blocked Iran’s access to international monetary markets and prevented its exports and imports; Tehran started to use gold for international trade.

So when euro depreciates it pushes the dollar up and as the dollar is the primary reserve currency of the world this upwards move of the greenback presses down gold and also euro further; as the alternative reserve currencies.

In the coming months we can expect the developing countries’ central banks to continue buying gold from cheap prices as they are trying to increase their gold holdings against possible ugly consequences of huge money printing experiments of the developed world. We can also expect that the US will take new measures to depreciate dollar, because strong dollar will hurt American exports and undermine an already fragile and debated economic recovery. Most importantly the US needs a weak national currency in order to create inflation and melt the giant national debt mountain. The problem is all the other developed money-based industrialized nations, especially Europeans and Japanese, need the same thing.